Hydrologic responses to earthquakes and a general metric

Hydrologic responses to earthquakes, including liquefaction, changes in stream and spring discharge, changes in the properties of groundwater such as geochemistry, temperature and turbidity, changes in the water level in wells, and the eruption of mud volcanoes, have been documented for thousands of years. Except for some water-level changes in the near field which can be explained by poroelastic responses to static stress changes, most hydrologic responses, both within and beyond the near field, can only be explained by the dynamic responses associated with seismic waves. For these responses, the seismic energy density e may be used as a general metric to relate and compare the various hydrologic responses. We show that liquefaction, eruption of mud volcanoes and increases in streamflow are bounded by e 10 J m; temperature changes in hot springs are bounded by e 10 J m; most sustained groundwater changes are bounded by e 10 J m; geysers and triggered seismicity may respond to seismic energy density as small as 10 and 10 J m, respectively. Comparing the threshold energy densities with published laboratory measurements, we show that undrained consolidation induced by dynamic stresses can explain liquefaction only in the near field, but not beyond the near field. We propose that in the intermediate field and far field, most responses are triggered by changes in permeability that in turn are a response to the cyclic deformation and oscillatory fluid flow. Published laboratory measurements confirm that changes in flow and time-varying stresses can change permeability, inducing both increases and decreases. Field measurements in wells also indicate that permeability can be changed by earthquakes in the intermediate field and far field. Further work, in particular field monitoring and measurements, are needed to assess the generality of permeability changes in explaining far-field hydrologic responses to earthquakes.